Dawn of a new transportation age (how did this idea from 2017 pan out?) an update

Road emissions are back up close to pre-pandemic level at 5.86 GtCO2 (6.02 in 2019)
Aug 1 2022, 4.6% adoption rate for EVs in the US -Axio.

Whats the point? 

The point is if people are going to do anything about climate change or reduce oil consumption, cut pollution or any green policy that will help the environment and human health we need to start moving in the right direction. Below is a tool from Statista to provide some information.

According to the data from Statista in 2017 production was at 97.9 bpd and a projection for 2022 at close to 100 bpd. If you are wondering why this is important to cleaning up the environmental practices of ourselves, the production values correspond directly to the Co2 emission that are clogging up the air of this planet we are living on. 

Road Transportation emissions are noted in blue below, the measurement is in GtCO2 which is one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. Source IEA ...


Soaring oil use for power generation and gas-to-oil switching are boosting demand. In this Report, we have raised our estimates for 2022 global demand growth by 380 kb/d, to 2.1 mb/d. Gains mask relative weakness in other sectors, and a slowdown in growth from 5.1 mb/d at the start of the year to less than 100 kb/d by 4Q22. World oil demand is now forecast at 99.7 mb/d in 2022 and 101.8 mb/d in 2023.

When the IEA talks about power generation, what the IEA means is electrical power generation! So let's spell this out clearly, if oil production and demand needs to go down in order to help with green house gases, as the number one emission is tail pipe (also known as road transportation), then we are risking increasing both emissions plus demand and use of oil by using it to generate electricity.  This is adding not subtracting from the overall emissions. The cause for alarm is partly about the strategy failure but also the obvious and over looked conclusion that consumption is linked to economic activity. As long as we continue to prioritize this activity then we will continue to consume oil and more oil each and every year going forward. So emissions will steadily increase as well. Where is the solution to all the talk? 

So far there has been only talk. 

Oil demand is ~100 Million barrels a day 2022.  In 2017 was ~97 Million per day. 2023 is project at 102 mbd, with a corresponding increase in emissions. In the next update let's take a look at electricity generation, shall we.

AAA latest (July 2022) consumer report finds 25% of people likely to buy an electric car.
That means 75% are passing on EVs at this point.

No one is talking about light rail transportation which would decrease road transportation significantly if expanded in a way to reduce car and truck use i.e. public transportation. 

Subsidizing light electric vehicles is also a possibility but the storage infrastructure would need to be developed so make this work to bring down emissions.

Below there are links to older articles which made some prediction which in hindsight are very interesting. Another hint is the only year going forward on record when the oil demand was lowered was 2020 when economic activity was at its lowest.

- Oct. 5, 2017

"A Barclays’ analysis concluded that oil demand could be slashed by 3.5 million barrels per day worldwide in 2025. If electric vehicle penetration reaches 33 percent, oil demand could shrink by a whopping 9 million barrels per day by 2040, Barclays concluded. Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance puts the number at 8 million barrels by 2040, more than the “current combined production of Iran and Iraq,” they note."

From PRN

In business for over 100 years, the automotive industry is about to embark on a radical, convulsive transformation. The Washington Post (http://nnw.fm/0P4Do) recently pegged 2017 as the year electric vehicles (EVs) went from a promising fad to an industry-wide inevitability due to broader economic and cultural developments. Cont.

What will be the oil production and demand be in 2023?  
And the adoption rate for EV cars and trucks? 
And the for electric motorcycles (which would reduce both demand for oil and electricity) is?
The Green or Alternative Revolutions are under a time crunch as are the EVs.


Popular posts from this blog